Guizhou Moutai (600519): Revenue growth in line with expectations fell back normally

Guizhou Moutai (600519): Revenue growth in line with expectations fell back normally
Event: Guizhou Moutai released its 2019 Interim Report, and the company’s total operating income in 2019H1 was 411.73 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.8%; net profit attributable to parent company was 199.51 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.56%.Among them, the total operating income of 2019Q2 was 186.92 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.89%; realized net profit attributable to parent company 87.30,000 yuan, an increase of 20 per year.29%. Opinion: The performance is in line with expectations, and the advance receipts 四川耍耍网 are up from the previous month: total operating income in 2019H1 increased by 16 year-on-year.8%, of which Maotai liquor realized income of 347.9.5 billion, an increase of 18 in ten years.4%, the report corresponds to the first half of Moutai shipments.6 is the lowest, with an annual increase of about 13%, and the increase in the proportion of non-standard Maotai drives the average price of products; the series of wines have achieved income 46.55 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.6%.Although 2019Q2 revenue increased by 10 in ten years.89%, compared with 2019Q1, a certain margin, but taking into account that the advance payment in 2019Q2 increased by 8 from the previous month.700 million, compared with a year-on-year decrease of over 3.2 billion in the same period last year. The quality of the growth in the second quarter is 合肥夜网 guaranteed. The reason for the increase in the second-quarter advances in the second quarter of 2019 is expected to be related to the acceptance of dealers’ quarterly payments at the end of June.In Q2 2019, the cash received for selling goods and providing services was 205.700 million, an annual increase of nearly 35%. Increase in gross profit margin + decline in sales expense ratio will continue to improve profitability: 2019Q2 net profit margin was 46.7%, it increased by nearly 3pcts, mainly due to 1) the gross profit margin improved by the optimization of product structure, the gross profit margin in the second quarter of 2019 was 91.95%, an increase of nearly 0 in a year.9); 2) The decrease in the sales expense ratio caused by the decrease in market expenditure expenses, and the increase in sales expenses in the second quarter of 2019 by 6.2%, falling by more than 1 per year.Two. The preliminary plan is steadily advancing, and we are waiting for the direct marketing plan to be implemented: According to the operating goals set in the early stage, the planned total operating income in 2019 will increase by 14%, and the growth level in the first half of the year will exceed the plan, and the practical goal will be advanced steadily.In the first half of 2019, the company’s direct sales channels were still being constructed in an orderly manner, and the direct sales channels achieved revenue16.02 billion, down 37 every year.86%, waiting for the gradual volume increase after the direct selling program is launched. Earnings forecast and estimation: The company’s first-half performance is in line with expectations, and it maintains a continuous profit forecast. It is expected that EPS for 2019-21 will be 33.18/39.44/46.59 yuan, an annual increase of 19.73% / 18.87% / 18.13%.The current PE corresponding to 2019-21 is 29x / 24x / 21x respectively, maintaining the “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: economic fluctuations affect demand; the expansion of direct sales channels does not meet expectations; food safety incidents, etc.