Fuling mustard (002507) company review report: mustard mustard sales growth appears repaired
Key points of investment: The sales growth of Fuling mustard in the second quarter obviously recovered from the first quarter and was more positive than expected.
In 20191H, the sales volume of Fuling mustard in the commercial supermarket channel increased by 5%, which is in line with our forecast.
From the perspective of the commercial supermarket channel, in March, April, May, and June 2019, the sales of Fuling mustard increased by 9 respectively.
03% and 8.
Considering January and February, the sales growth of Fuling mustard was only 1.
3% and 4.
4%, sales growth after March repaired significantly.
According to the survey by the Shangchao channel, there are some new views on the sales of Fuling mustard. First, the sales growth of Fuling mustard is being repaired, and the situation is better than previously expected. Second, the market price of Fuling mustard has passed 2017 and 2018.After a significant year-on-year increase, it has declined in 2019, but the magnitude is small. It has now stabilized and is flat with the same period of the previous year.
Third, according to our data observation, after June 2018, the price increase of Fuling mustard has an inverse relationship with the increase in sales volume, that is, the increase in price is small, the sales volume is increasing fast, and the increase in price increase is falling, so the current market priceThe fall is conducive to sales growth in the second half of the year.
We increase the sales growth of the company’s senior management, which maintains a zero price growth forecast, while increasing sales growth from 5% to 8%.
Some of the company’s core markets are growing rapidly.
According to the sales caliber, the company’s sales accounted for a relatively large market include: Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Jiangxi.
Among the above-mentioned markets, the sales growth of supermarkets in 20191H is higher in Shanghai, Beijing, Anhui, Guangdong and Hainan, Jiangsu, and Hubei. The sales growth rate is 15% to 30%. These markets account for 53% of the company structure.55%, which belongs to the core market; Tianjin, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Guangxi, Fujian, and Jiangxi have low or negative growth markets. These markets account for 20% to 25% of the company structure and belong to the general market.
With higher growth in the core market, the company’s overall sales are expected to reach 8%.
The market price of Ling mustard has dropped 苏州夜网论坛 somewhat, effectively promoting sales in the second half of the year.
After the sharp increase in the market price of Fuling mustard from 2018 to the first quarter of 2019, it fell back in the second quarter of 2019 with a fall of about 2.
Six single, the current price is unchanged from the same period last year.
The drop in mustard prices will promote future sales growth.
In the first half of 2018, the growth momentum of the price and sales volume of mustard has been rapidly diminishing. After the second half of the year, the price growth and sales growth show an inverse relationship. At present, the slowdown in price increase is beneficial to the growth of mustard.
In terms of market, the sales volume growth rate has fluctuated compared with the price drop at the beginning of the year, and the market sales volume 杭州桑拿 that has risen without falling prices has basically been a negative growth. Therefore, we can cut the market to be sensitive to the price of mustard, and a small price reduction can drive terminal consumption.Higher growth.
Fuling mustard has a market share of over 40% in the provinces where it is saved.
With a few exceptions, such as Zhejiang, Beijing, Tianjin, Heilongjiang, and Liaoning, Fuling mustard has less than 40% of these markets. In all other provinces, Fuling mustard has a market share of more than 40%.The share is as high as 60% to 70%, indicating that the mustard market has been highly integrated.
In theory, the degree of industry integration can be improved, the more prominent the leading economy, and the profitability of the industry oligarch will increase.
If the company can be good at eliminating the volume and price relationship and avoid scrapping the market due to price or market scrap prices, there is still a lot of room for the company’s future performance improvement, including category expansion, channel sinking, and internationalization of the company.
Taiwan’s “Famous Mouth” made a unique advertisement for Fuling mustard, which achieved unexpected social effects.
Huang Shicong, a well-known financial host in Taiwan, said in a recent program: Consumption in the mainland has slowed, and many people cannot afford mustard, which has led to the decline in the performance of listed companies in Fuling mustard.
After the show, countless netizens on the mainland have commented on the major online media, and the company missed the opportunity to send the mustard to the host. At the same time, they thanked the host on the official Weibo for helping the spread of mustard culture.Dominating the screen and making headlines, the company became the biggest winner in the event, and unexpectedly achieved an excellent publicity effect.
Investment strategy We raise the sales forecast of Fuling mustard. It is expected that the company’s revenue will increase by 6% in 2019, 2020 and 2021.11.
24% and 13.
4%, the estimated budget returns are 0.
23 yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.
05% and 14.
Give the company a price-earnings ratio of 25 times in 2020, corresponding to the company’s annual 26.
75 yuan, up 19 from the current.
15%, upgrade the company’s rating to “Buy”.