Shanxi Fenjiu (600809): Looking at the Fenjiu Revival in Three Dimensions: Short, Medium and Long

Shanxi Fenjiu (600809): Looking 杭州桑拿网 at the Fenjiu Revival in Three Dimensions: Short, Medium and Long

We think it is very reasonable and effective to comprehensively analyze the investment value of Shanxi Fenjiu from the perspective of “short, medium and long”.

The aim is that in the short-term, we are concerned that liquor is not an industry boom or even a structural boom, so there are streamlined investment targets and a focus on varieties of consumer products / liquor investment strategies.

How to judge the variety on the right, except that Maowu is a recognized variety in the liquor industry. Horizontal comparisons from the perspective of growth rate, performance certainty, and optional price band vertical varieties. Fenjiu ranked second with better performance certainty.High-end moment position; Gradually, macroeconomic fluctuations and even continuous 杭州夜网论坛 downward fluctuations, and sudden changes in industry growth, you must consider the growth path, space, and advantages of the company from a continuous perspective to justify the rationality of short-term advantage (growth) investment decisionsIn order to obtain excess returns beyond cycle growth.

After Fenjiu continued to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises, it was self-driven, and its potential was stimulated to become an outstanding “market possession”. The product strategy of “both ends of the belt” and the market strategy of in-depth nationalization are bearing fruit, and the growth space is being opened. The futureThere is also room for improvement in profitability.

Ascending the distance, the revival of fenjiu is the direction that should be explored at present.

Shanxi Fenjiu has increased by more than 110% (as of September 11) this year. It ranks in the forefront of the liquor sector and even the entire food and beverage sector. Although the apparent estimate (based on wind consensus) has exceeded 30x in 2019, reaching about 34x,Significantly higher than the average level of the liquor sector (30x).

Standing at the current position, we think we need to look at the investment value of Shanxi Fenjiu from a higher level.

The revival of fenjiu is a major proposition we want to explore. What height should fenjiu brands have, what price performance should fenjiu products have, what reasonable space should there be for the scale of fenjiu, and what level of profitability can fenjiu reach?

If these problems can be clarified, we believe that the long-term value of Fenjiu will be solved.

In the past two years, in the exchanges with a large number of industry people, we found that the market has recognized that the sauce is hot, and the “fragrant scent” has repeatedly repeated. One of the three major flavors of the four old famous wines has won five famous wines.”I was awakened by the reincarnation of Fenjiu Company and continued to strengthen its resonance.

Those who travel hundreds of miles are half-90s, and the three major tasks must be adhered to.

In the new period of the company, the summary of the three historical tasks including “deepening the reform of the system and mechanism” is very profound and comprehensive. In the future, special attention should be paid to the establishment and improvement of the company’s modern enterprise system. Especially after the group’s overall listing, the construction of the management team is far-sighted.In addition, it is necessary to further strengthen the management, the consistency of the interests of employees and the company, and protect the revival of Fenjiu.

Investment suggestion: Based on the recognition of the company’s revival path, we expect the company’s net profit growth rate in 2019-21 to be 33%, 28%, 28%, a compound average growth rate of 29%, outstanding growth; maintain buy-A Investment rating, 6-month target price of 92.

00 yuan.

The target price is equivalent to a dynamic P / E ratio of 25x in 2021.

Risk reminders: The persistently long macroeconomic pressure will affect the changes in sub-high-end demand; increased competition will cause profit margins to rise more than expected; Bofin ‘s nationalization will not sell as well as expected after the country ‘s afterburner; the blue and white 30 upgrade exceeds expectations