Zhou Dasheng (002867): Terminal warm-up & store opening speed will boost market expectations
Investment highlights The growth of the market in the first half of the year and the impact of reductions are estimated to have undergone major adjustments.
In 2018, the company’s showroom increased by 651 to 3,375, an increase of 23 in ten years.
90%, but the sluggish consumer sentiment coupled with a large backlog of expected inventory from the store to the market has led to the replacement of same-store growth.
Obviously, the company does not give guidance on the 武汉夜网论坛 number of franchised stores in 2019.
Therefore, the market is generally concerned that the company’s growth rate will change due to the backlog of inventory and the expected expansion of the store. In addition, the second shareholder, Northern Lights, continues to give expectations of reductions, and Zhou Dasheng is expected to undergo major adjustments.
The company’s inventory and same store growth rate are expected to improve in the second quarter.
The same-store growth rate previously expected by the market may improve in the second half of the year, reducing the pressure on the market inventory.
However, judging from our recent grassroots research, the company’s terminal sales have gradually increased in the second quarter, and the improvement of same-store growth has pushed terminal inventory to be eliminated.
The recovery of the gold jewelry market has eased the pressure on inventory.
The gold and silver jewelry society’s zero growth rate has bottomed out from April to May this year, and this trend may continue until October 2019 to February 2020.
Benefiting from this, Chow Tai Fook ‘s retail value ranking in mainland China for the first quarter of fiscal 2020 increased 24% last year, and same-store sales increased 11% from the same period last year.
Similarly, Zhou Dasheng’s inventory pressure has also eased due to a rebound in sales.
The situation of the exhibition stores is expected to gradually recover, with a preliminary forecast of 400-500 net openings.
The current market expects that Zhou Dasheng will only have about 300-400 stores in 2019.
And we expect that with the recovery of same-store growth and the gradual recovery of the consumer market, the company’s exhibition stores will gradually accelerate in the second half of the year.
We expect a maximum net opening of 400-500 stores.
The pressure to reduce the Northern Lights will also be gradually released.
Out of its own liquidation needs, the company’s second shareholder, Northern Light Investment, which currently holds 11% of its shares, has continued to reduce its holdings, and has reduced its holdings by nearly 7% since 2017.
Zhou Dasheng has been a major reduction target for Northern Lights reduction.
At present, due to estimation errors, if there is a large-scale acceptance opportunity in the short term, the release of chip pressure will resume a reasonable estimation.
Even without major commitments, the company’s fundamentals can still support expectations and will gradually release pressure on the Northern Lights chips over the long term.
Fundamental improvement continues to advance, and active attention is recommended.
It is expected that the company will continue to benefit from the third- and fourth-tier dividends and the upgrade of domestic consumption, which is good for the branding trend. With the continuous exhibition plan, it will gradually continue to promote the release of performance.
The net profit attributable to mothers was increased slightly by 10 to 19-21.
2 billion, 12.
8 billion, 15.
800 million, a year-on-year increase of 26%, 26%, 24%, the EPS for 2019-21 苏州夜网论坛 is 1.
17 yuan, PE is 16/13 / 10x.
Risk warning: The condition of the exhibition shop is worse than expected, the sales of jewelry are worse than expected, and the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry are not growing as fast as expected.