Makihara Shares (002714): Periodic Conversion Turns Out High Bars

Makihara Shares (002714): Periodic Conversion Turns Out High Bars

Key investment results were in line with expectations, and cycle conversion: Makihara released the 2018 annual report, and the company sold a total of 1101 pigs in 2018.

100,000 heads, of which 1010 are commercial hogs.

900,000, 86 piglets.

400,000 breeding pigs 3.

800,000 heads; operating income of 133.

880,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.

32%; realized net 四川耍耍网 profit attributable to mother 5.

20 ppm, a decrease of 78 per year.

01%.

And the company issued a notice for the first quarter of 2019, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother in January-March 2019 is -5.

60 to -5.

2000000000.

The performance of 2018 was divided, and the pig business contributed about 0.

7.5 billion yuan: 5 from Makihara’s 2018 performance.

In terms of US $ 2 billion, the company’s other income (government subsidies related to daily business activities) 3.

750,000 yuan, net investment income (mainly investment income obtained by purchasing wealth management products) 0.

70 trillion, pig breeding business contributed about 0.

7.5 billion.

Looking at the company’s 2018 pig breeding business performance by quarter, Q1-Q4 performance contribution was 0.

66 / -2.

99/3.

26 / -0.

1.8 billion.

In 2018, the total cost decreased month-on-month, and the advantages are still significant: the most important way for incumbents to obtain a competitive advantage is to obtain a specific structure that cannot be copied.

The correct competitive advantage is reflected in the fact that the industry’s booming period gets more opportunities for capacity expansion, and the industry’s booming period gets its own cost advantage to continue to profit through the cycle.

The complete cost of breeding pig breeding is the lowest in the industry. The higher average profit brought by the reduction has further reduced its financing ability in the capital market. This also means that as long as Muyuan can maintain the cost advantage of the leading industry, its pig production volume will be reduced.Promote sustained high growth.

According to our calculations, in Q1-Q4 2018, the full costs of Makihara commercial hogs were 11 respectively.

92/11.

65/11.

62/11.

41 yuan / kg, and the full cost of the company is expected to be about 12 in 2019 due to the impact of African swine fever.

Around 00 yuan / mm, the cost advantage is still significant.

Financing channels are still abundant, and the growth of future listings is highly certain: the herdsmen’s own land reserve has increased. The main factors for the growth of listings are the financing capacity and the annual profit rolling.

At present, the company’s financing channels are still plentiful. Preference shares have been issued. Green bonds, corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and perpetual votes have been approved, and a 5 billion fixed increase plan has been announced.

Although the company’s performance in 2018 has increased, its capital expansion will still reach 50 by 2018.

470,000 yuan (including Q4 capital expenditure of 16.

2.5 billion, an increase of 103 from the previous month.

89%), a decline of 19 per year.58%, it is estimated that the number of 14 million pigs in 2019 will still be expected.

“Rising prices, shrinking production capacity” is the core point of this round of investment in hog breeding stocks: Although the current conversion of hog prices has been transformed, African swine fever is still like a sword of Damocles hanging on the head of the breeding body.Then, the entire hog breeding industry has experienced an atypical state during the period of cyclic conversion: “prices rise and production capacity shrinks”, breaking the traditional cobweb model of the traditional pig price analysis framework.

In the reversal phase of the cycle, the increase in hog prices will inevitably be accompanied by a large number of supplements in the breeding body, which will lead to the rapid decline of pig prices after reaching a high point in the boom. In the current cycle, due to the existence of African swine fever,The progress is accompanied by the continuous elimination of sow productivity in the industry, which may cause the current cycle to reverse pig price highs and durations that exceed expectations.

Cycle conversion and conversion, high growth rate, and maintain a “buy” rating: Muyuan as a leader in self-reliance and self-support mode, the current cost advantage is still significant (the industry’s lowest cost, it is estimated that the full cost of commercial pigs in 2019 is 12.

00 yuan / ton), the long-term return on net assets is higher than the industry average. In the current cycle of reversal and conversion, the current pig price reached a new high under the circumstances of African swine fever. It is estimated that the company’s slaughter volume in 2019-2021 will be 1400 /18,200,200 heads, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 77.

94/173.

76/163.

20,000 yuan, corresponding to 3 EPS.

74/8.

33/7.

82 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: Public safety incidents caused by the epidemic, such as African swine fever; the price of feed raw materials; environmental supervision, weather and other factors affecting the progress of capacity construction.