Poly Real Estate (600048) January Sales Data Commentary-Short-term Sales Short-term Profit Released Considerable
The company’s sales entered a short-term trough.
However, the company has abundant settlement resources, the development of its two wings business is smooth, and there may be a downward trend in the cost of funds. It is estimated that it has obvious appeal. We maintain our investment rating of “Buy”.
The short-term pressure of sales is believed to be able to achieve the previous low and then high.
In January 2020, the company achieved a contracted area of 157.
570,000 square meters, down 30 before.
85%; 235 contracted amount achieved.
880,000 yuan, down 29 every year.
Affected by the Spring Festival and the current epidemic, the company’s sales in the first quarter are expected to continue to be sluggish, but we believe that the company can achieve high and low sales before and after, the company’s land reserve and land acquisition equally focus on core cities and urban agglomerations, and potential housing demand is strong.With the continuous advancement of sales activities and the potential decline in mortgage interest rates, the scale of sales is expected to increase significantly.
Rich settlement resources and profitability continue to be realized.
The company has released a quick performance report. In 2019, the company realized operating income of US $ 235.5 billion, an annual increase of 21.
1%, net profit attributable to mothers was 2.66 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.
From the perspective of the company’s sales and settlement rhythm, we believe that the company’s pre-receipt scale will continue to expand, settlement will increase significantly, and profitability will not decrease significantly, which will effectively guarantee the continued stable release of future performance.
The business of the two wings has gradually become full, leading the era of spin-offs.
The integrated two-wing development strategy proposed by the company in the earlier period, in addition to the main business of real estate investment and development, has also vigorously developed a comprehensive service wing based on the industrial chain and asset management, and a real estate financial wing based on industrial financial services.
The company’s two-wing business is 佛山桑拿网 gradually mature. At the end of 2019, Poly Property was listed on the H shares, and the company held a stock market value of nearly 25 billion (based on the closing price on February 9).
We believe that other units of the two wings business also have the potential to be listed independently.
In 2020, the company’s cost of funds may fall.
Around 2019, the industry’s financing environment may be more friendly in 2020.
The company has good credit, and the cost of funds is expected to continue to decline in the future.
Risk reminder: the risk of insufficient space for long-term development in the real estate development industry.
It is estimated to be attractive, the performance can still maintain rapid growth, and maintain a “buy” investment rating.
We believe that the company has abundant settlement resources and smooth development of its two wings business.
We maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2020/20212.
21 yuan / share, NAV19.
43 yuan / share.
We maintain 19.
The target price of 21 yuan / share maintains the company’s “Buy” investment rating.